David Johnson, our favorite DFW market analyst and prognosticator, spoke to the club on February 10th with his insights on the affect of Covid 19 on the business economy. Succinctly stated he observed that strong companies prospered while small concerns are going under leaving workers unemployed for jobs that won't ever return.
On a more positive note he reported that in spite of Covid, January bankruptcy filings were the lowest since 2006. Additionally he is certain that Congress will pass a stimulus package soon along with help from the Fed. First quarter earnings are up substantially as well.. On the other hand business travel has plummeted with Gary Kelly of Southwest Airlines suggesting that it will not return to pre-Covid levels for up to ten years. Less travel has a negative effect on hotel and restaurant businesses as well.
He sees investment dollars going to tech companies. More and more vehicles will be electric powered and delivery services will proliferate including drone deliveries. Work from home will become a permanent feature in the future.
A final bright spot is that personal savings have gone to 14% of income which may portend much higher consumer spending when Covid 19 is brought under control.